2023/10/3 Tuesday Cloudy and small rain

 

From WSJ

Tougher Return-to-Office Policies Are No Remedy for Half-Empty Buildings

Office owners are struggling with near record-high vacancy rates

Oct. 2, 2023 9:00 pm ET

First, the good news for office landlords: A post-Labor Day bump nudged return-to-office rates in mid-September to their highest level since the onset of the pandemic.

Now the bad: Office attendance in big cities is still barely half of what it was in 2019, and company get-tough measures are proving largely ineffective at boosting that rate much higher. Most employees go into offices during the middle of the week, but floors are sparsely populated on Mondays and Fridays. In Chicago, some September days had a return rate of over 66%. But it was below 30% on Fridays. In New York, it ranges from about 25% to 65%, according to Kastle Systems, which tracks security-card swipes.

Many cities are contending with an increase in homelessness and crime. San Francisco, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., which are struggling with these problems, are among the lowest return-to-office cities in the Kastle System index.

 About 90% of members surveyed by the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce said that the city couldn’t recover until homelessness and public safety problems were addressed, said Rachel Smith, chief executive. That is taken into account as companies make decisions about returning to the office and how much space they need, she added. The sluggish return-to-office rate is leading many city and business leaders to ask the federal government for help. A group from the Great Lakes Metro Chambers Coalition recently met with elected officials in Washington, D.C., lobbying for incentives for businesses that make commitments to U.S. downtowns.

In summary, several reasons why the rate of return-to-office is still low in big cities:

• The prospect of more COVID-19 cases in the fall. Many employees are still concerned about the risk of catching COVID-19 at the office, especially with the emergence of new variants.
• A weakening economy. Some employees may be reluctant to return to the office if they are worried about losing their jobs or if they can save money by working from home.
• Lax enforcement of return-to-office rules. Many companies are still allowing employees to work remotely at least part-time, even if they have a formal return-to-office policy.
• Increased homelessness and crime in many cities. Employees may feel unsafe commuting to or working in an office building if they live in a city with a high crime rate.
• Cuts in government services and transportation. Reduced bus service and other public transportation options can make it more difficult and expensive for employees to commute to work.

When Will the Fed Stop Raising Rates? That’s the Trillion-Dollar Question for Bond Investors

Asset managers are betting on flood of money into fixed-income funds that has yet to materialize

Oct. 3, 2023 5:30 am ET

Investors ranging from pension funds to retirement savers should be buying longer-term bonds to lock in higher rates, their thinking goes, spurring a flood of inflows to bond funds. BlackRock, for one, has projected assets under management at its bond exchange-traded funds to triple to $2.5 trillion by 2030.

There is just one problem: Those flows have yet to materialize. Relentless losses in the bond market have spooked investors who appear hesitant to jump in until they feel more confident that rates have peaked. Investors pulled $78.6 billion from U.S.-based taxable bond funds in the 12 months through August, according to Morningstar. That is well below the nearly $300 billion they pulled from equities over the same period but a painful sum, regardless, for asset managers hoping for a windfall吃“Investors remain wary of continued Fed hikes,” said Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investments at mutual fund shop Thornburg Investment Management. “There’s a lot of negative sentiment and investor psychology reacting to rising rates, and the desire is to sit on the sidelines.”

“When you really get confirmation and clarity that the Fed is done, we would expect to see more meaningful movement of flows into fixed-income,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys. 

Americans’ Growing Reluctance to Quit Their Jobs, in Five Charts

Workers are voluntarily leaving their positions at near 2019 rates, after record job switching in recent years

Oct. 3, 2023 5:30 am ET

The surge in Americans quitting their jobs has fallen from record highs it hit during the pandemic. Why that is happening could say something about where the economy is headed. Quitting is a sign a worker is unhappy with their job, but also a sign they are confident they can find another. Quits trending down can be worrisome. The quits rate fell in each of the past three recessions. But workers today are also sticking with their jobs for other reasons, including greater flexibility, better pay—or even that they are happy. And that suggests the economy has more staying power.

Switching jobs comes with risks: new colleagues, a learning curve and many unknowns about working conditions at a new employer. 

Since the pandemic, workers have gained more flexibility to work remotely or on hybrid schedules, and gained benefits like more paid time off. For many, that means they are happy in their current jobs. “Labor markets are loosening, but overall we are still in a very tight labor market,” said Selcuk Eren, senior economist at the Conference Board. “If companies are interested in retaining workers, they need to continue offering hybrid and remote work settings.”

Wall Street Thinks America’s Homes Are Overvalued

As prices paid for the average single-family property hit record highs, big investors are taking a pass

Oct. 3, 2023 8:00 am ET

There is a shortage of single-family homes in the U.S., which could make that market more resilient.

U.S. single-family properties are the only type of real estate that has increased in value since interest rates began to rise in March 2022. After a brief dip in the months after the Federal Reserve’s initial hikes, house prices resumed their climb. Residential property values reached a record in July, based on the latest numbers from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

The stock market is flashing another warning sign for house prices. Shares of U.S. single-family housing REITs trade at a 20% discount to their gross asset value, according to Green Street’s director of research, Cedrik Lachance. This is an indicator of where shareholders think the value of the homes in these companies’ portfolios are headed. 

Investors may be underestimating the housing market, though. There is a shortage of single-family homes in the U.S., versus a potential glut of apartments if all the projects currently in the pipeline actually get built. Rent growth is stronger for single-family homes than apartments.

It can’t be a good sign for house hunters that Wall Street is no longer showing up at viewings. Still, buying a home to live in is more than a purely financial investment. This makes the single-family sector different from other property—overvalued, certainly, but perhaps less vulnerable to a crash.

U.S. Car Sales Expected to Increase Again in the Third Quarter

The car market has yet to see an impact from UAW strike-related factory shutdowns

Oct. 3, 2023 5:30 am ET

Car companies sold an estimated 3.9 million new cars and trucks in the third quarter, up about 17% over the prior-year period, according to J.D. Power, a data and analytics firm. 

The UAW strike, which began in mid-September and has targeted five assembly plants at GM, Ford and Chrysler-parent 

Stellantis

, has yet to make a major dent in U.S. auto sales. 

The three Detroit automakers built up inventory ahead of the work stoppage, which so far has affected plants accounting for about 16% of the companies’ North American production, according to research firm Wards Intelligence.  American car buyers have continued to flock to dealership lots, despite climbing interest rates, high prices and a cooling labor market. The industry’s sales strength reflects a broader resilience in consumer demand with many people prioritizing needs in the short-term. 

Dealers and car companies say this year’s strong sales are partly driven by buyers who put off purchases during a period of vehicle shortages in past years, which pushed many cars to be sold above manufacturer-suggested retail prices. 

The third-quarter sales results were buoyed by fuller dealer lots, which in turn, meant fewer price markups and more discounts on the new-car lot. 

As a result, the average price paid by car buyers in the third-quarter fell slightly over the prior-year period to $45,516 a vehicle, J.D. Power’s data shows. While overall auto sales have remained strong, the EV market is showing signs of cooling off with sales of battery-powered cars having plateaued at around 8.5% of the market in recent months.

EV market leader Tesla  said its sales growth slowed in the third quarter over the previous three-month period, which the company attributed to manufacturing disruptions from factory upgrades.

“As affordability and availability reach all-time highs for EVs, consumer interest and true adoption are not notably improving,” said Elizabeth Krear, an EV analyst at J.D. Power.

日本將為美光廣島工廠的晶片項目提供12.8億美元資金支持

日本經濟產業大臣西村康稔表示，作為確保半導體穩定供應的努力的一部分，日本政府將向美光科技公司在廣島工廠的存儲晶片項目提供超過10億美元的援助。

西村康稔說，這些採用最新技術生產的晶片將用於生成式人工智能、數據中心和自動駕駛，並說，在行業不景氣的時候進行此次投資非常重要，因為預計未來對這些應用的需求將會增加。美光今年5月曾表示，在日本政府的支持下，該公司將投資約36億美元在日本生產先進製程存儲晶片。

揭秘首家10億美元綠氫初創企業

數百家公司已承諾生產大量綠氫，但尚未有一家公司取得成功。Electric Hydrogen認為，成功的秘訣在於找到一種更好的分子分裂方法。

Electric Hydrogen是的首家獨角獸企業。最近，該公司從英國石油公司(BP, BP)、美國聯合大陸控股有限公司(United Airlines, UAL)、微軟(Microsoft, MSFT)和鐵礦石生產商Fortescue Metals等支持者處籌集了3.8億美元。這使其企業價值突破了神奇的10億美元大關。Electric Hydrogen旨在通過將特斯拉(Tesla Inc., TSLA)的精通技術與First Solar (FSLR)的財務紀律相結合，從而克服該行業過去的失敗歷程；First Solar是唯一一家在廉價中國進口產品衝擊中倖存下來的美國太陽能電池板生產商。該公司已經引入了上述兩家公司的高管。

報導：福特和通用汽車將在四家工廠裁員494人

據路透報導，福特汽車公司將在俄亥俄州利馬以及芝加哥的工廠總共裁員330人，通用汽車公司將在俄亥俄州和印第安納州的工廠裁員164人。

2023年10月3日08:20 CST 更新

裁員是由於全美汽車工人聯合會(United Auto Workers，簡稱UAW)罷工對部分工廠造成的影響。UAW周一提交了與通用汽車簽訂合同的新方案，但雙方仍存在分歧。

全美汽車工人聯合會(United Auto Workers union, 簡稱UAW)持續罷工造成的連鎖效應顯現，福特汽車公司(Ford Motor Co., F)和通用汽車公司(General Motors Co., GM)再次裁員，兩家公司的合計裁員人數為500人。

福特汽車周一晚些時候稱，該公司兩家為芝加哥一家運動型多功能車(SUV)組裝廠提供零部件的工廠已停工，該工廠的工人上周五開始罷工。該公司表示，上述SUV工廠附近的一家衝壓廠和俄亥俄州利馬的一家發動機廠停工，導致大約330名員工被裁。

通用汽車周一早些時候表示，該公司在克利夫蘭附近的一家工廠裁員130人，印第安納州中部的一家工廠裁員34人。這兩家工廠生產通用汽車裝配廠使用的金屬零部件，而這些裝配廠都因罷工而處於停工狀態。

通用汽車、福特汽車和克萊斯勒母公司Stellantis (STLA)旗下的工廠現在合計約有2.5萬名UAW成員罷工。由於在9月14日的最後期限未能就新的四年期合同達成協議，UAW發起了這些罷工。作為一種施壓策略，該工會已逐步擴大罷工的規模。

在通用汽車和福特汽車周一披露上述裁員消息後，已有超過6,000名工廠工人受罷工溢出效應影響而失業。這一數字中包括幾家供應商，這些供應商稱，此次罷工活動已直接造成自身的部分員工被無薪休假。

自上周五UAW將罷工範圍擴大至福特汽車的芝加哥工廠以及通用汽車位於密歇根州蘭辛的SUV工廠以來，談判一直在繼續。福特汽車的芝加哥工廠生產Explorer和Lincoln Aviator SUV，通用汽車位於密歇根州蘭辛的SUV工廠則生產雪佛蘭(Chevrolet) Traverse和別克(Buick) Enclave。

瑞銀試圖讓投資者相信瑞信不會使瑞銀陷入麻煩

瑞銀正試圖向投資者保證，收購瑞士信貸的舉動不會使瑞銀陷入類似的監管調查和醜聞泥潭。

2023年10月3日08:30 CST 更新

瑞銀在周末表示：「最近關於美國司法部在調查瑞士信貸和瑞銀未能達到與制裁相關的合規要求的報導是不準確的。我們不知道有這樣的調查。」

彭博(Bloomberg)上周報導稱，美國司法部正在對瑞士信貸涉及與俄羅斯有關的制裁進行全面調查，瑞銀也在接受調查。這導致瑞銀股價下跌，但該股隨後已收復大部分失地。瑞銀周日還證實，該行已經解決了莫桑比克與瑞士信貸之間的長期法律糾紛。《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)上周四報導稱，和解已進入最後階段，瑞銀將不會支付任何現金。

日本財務大臣：隨時準備對日圓急跌採取措施

日本財務大臣鈴木俊一周二表示，如果日圓出現過於急劇的下跌，日本政府隨時準備採取行動。

2023年10月3日11:15 CST 更新

鈴木俊一重申，日本政府並不以任何特定的日元匯率水平為目標，而是關注匯率的波動幅度。美元兌日圓最新報149.85日圓左右。

財新9月份中國服務業PMI進一步降至50.2，與綜合PMI齊創年內最低

財新傳媒和研究公司Markit周日早間公布，財新中國9月份服務業PMI繼續急降至50.2，幾乎陷入萎縮，再創年內新低，顯示服務業增長動力進一步減弱。

2023年10月2日08:10 CST 更新

先前8月份，該PMI急降至51.8的年內低點；7月為54.1，但仍弱於上半年整體水平。

自2023年初以來，服務業經營活動保持每月擴張。

在去年12月放開疫情防控措施後，今年1月，財新服務業PMI反彈至52.9，五個月來首度重返擴張區間；之後3月的57.8和5月的57.1，分別創2020年11月後最高和次高。

2022年7月，財新中國服務業PMI錄得55.5，之後從9月開始陷入萎縮。

分項數據看，9月雖新接出口業務量恢復增長，但整體新訂單量增速放緩，為今年以來最低，其中有些企業提到市場需求比預期疲弱。

鑑於經營活動和新接業務量的表現，企業放緩用工擴張步伐；當月用工增速為此輪持續8個月的擴張期內最低。

企業投入成本繼續增加，主要與用工和燃料成本上漲有關，但整體升幅尚小，並已放緩至9個月來最低。

財新智庫高級經濟學家王喆解讀數據稱，9月中國製造業和服務業景氣度均在擴張區間下降。過去幾月間，政策密集出台，各項重要經濟指標出現邊際改善，但經濟恢復基礎仍不穩固，國內需求依然不足，外部不確定因素依然較多，就業市場壓力仍偏大。

他認為，下一階段，前期政策落地見效情況應是關注重點，穩就業、增收入等關鍵環節或需進一步加力。此外，房地產市場供求關係已發生重大變化，相關調控措施的放鬆對市場促進效果已較有限，對居民可支配收入的擠壓及相關風險更值得關注。

財新9月份數據與官方數據走勢並不一致。

中國國家統計局和物流與採購聯合會昨日聯合公布的數據顯示，9月份非製造業商務活動指數為51.7，比上月上升0.7個百分點，一舉扭轉了先前連續五個月的回落勢頭，顯示非製造業擴張力度增強。

財新9月份中國製造業PMI降至50.6，但仍連續第二個月擴張

財新傳媒和研究公司Markit周日早間公布的數據顯示，9月份中國通用製造業PMI稍降至50.6，但仍連續第二個月擴張，且略高於2023年以來的均值。

2023年10月2日08:10 CST 更新

先前8月份該PMI升至51.0，時隔一個月重回擴張，創2月份後最佳表現。

7月份該PMI降至49.2，時隔兩個月再度跌破榮枯線；6月和5月各為50.5、50.9。

9月份，價格壓力抬頭，原料成本上揚，投入品均價錄得1月後最快漲速，不過仍遠低於本想調查的長期均值。成本壓力增大之下，製造商7個月來首次上調產品售價，且加價幅度為2022年3月後最顯著。

業界對未來一年的生產前景持增長預期，但樂觀度下滑至12個月來最低。全球經濟低迷，拖累了業界整體增長預期。

財新智庫高級經濟學家王喆博士表示，過去幾月政策密集出台，宏觀經濟呈現企穩跡象，不過修復基礎仍不穩固，國內需求依然不足，外部不確定因素依然較多，就業市場壓力仍偏大。

他認為，下一階段，前期各項穩經濟政策落地見效情況應是關注重點，穩就業、增收入等關鍵環節或需進一步加力。

中國國家統計局和物流與採購聯合會周六聯合發布的數據顯示，9月份官方製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)升至50.2，高於市場預期，為連續第四個月回升，且自今年4月以來首次回升至擴張區間。