2023/10/2 Sunny in the morning and cloudy in the afternoon

 From WSJ

恆大最新波折預示中國經濟長期困局

就在中國經濟顯出一些活力跡象之際，全球負債最多的房地產開發商中國恆大的麻煩又來了，這表明中國龐大房地產市場的長期低迷遠未結束。

Jason Douglas 發自新加坡 /

 

Cao Li 發自香港

2023年10月2日10:35 CST 更新

中國恆大是全球負債最多的房地產開發商，該公司拖欠銀行、承包商及供應商的賬單達數百億美元。監管部門還對中國恆大展開調查，這向其他瀕臨破產的開發商發出了一個令人擔憂的信號。

中國政府為推動經濟重回正軌所做的努力主要集中在穩定房地產市場上，但到目前為止，這些努力的效果並不明顯。房地產市場仍在疲軟，對經濟的負面影響將長期存在。

從長遠來看，中國政府很清楚，房地產不會再像過去那樣在經濟中發揮特別大的作用。中國需要適應一種新的常態。

以下是文章中的一些關鍵點：

• 中國房地產市場疲軟是中國經濟面臨的最大問題。
• 中國恆大集團的麻煩再次凸顯了房地產市場的困境。
• 中國政府為推動經濟重回正軌所做的努力主要集中在穩定房地產市場上。
• 房地產市場仍在疲軟，對經濟的負面影響將長期存在。
• 從長遠來看，中國需要適應一種新的常態。
• 
  
  

大眾汽車放棄在德國沃爾夫斯堡增建工廠的計劃

大眾汽車在調整了其同名乘用車品牌新電動汽車車型的生產計劃後，決定不再需要在德國沃爾夫斯堡-瓦爾梅瑙增建一座新工廠。

Adria Calatayud

2023年9月30日09:45 CST 更新這家德國汽車巨頭周五表示，原計劃在德國沃爾夫斯堡-瓦爾梅瑙建造的「三位一體」(Trinity)汽車項目將轉到同在德國的茨維考工廠。

麥卡錫面臨共和黨強硬派罷免威脅，先前促成避免政府關門的協議

在促成避免政府關門的協議一天後，美國眾議院議長麥卡錫的領導地位面臨直接威脅，最受關注的麥卡錫的批評者表示將尋求把他趕下台。

Kristina Peterson /

 

Lindsay Wise

2023年10月2日10:15 CST 更新

佛羅裡達州共和黨籍眾議員馬特·蓋茲(Matt Gaetz)周日提出的挑戰或開啟美國國會一場難以預料、快速發展的政治爭鬥，這場爭鬥由麥卡錫對陣一群共和黨反對他的議員，後者幾個月來一直威脅稱，如果麥卡錫提出的立法需要民主黨人支持，他們將讓他下台。麥卡錫已經爭取到民主黨人支持他的短期撥款法案，他可能還會需要民主黨人相助以保住自己的位子。

「放馬過來吧，」麥卡錫周日在哥倫比亞廣播公司(CBS)的節目中說，他預測自己將經受住蓋茲的挑戰。「他試圖把我們推到關門的境地，而我確保了政府不會關門，如果他因此而惱火，那我們就來斗這一場吧。」周末事情的發展頗令人感到意外，麥卡錫撇開了蓋茲和其他共和黨強硬派，轉而選擇通過得到兩黨支持的立法，為政府提供撥款運轉至11月中旬，得到了超過半數共和黨議員和除一名民主黨議員之外的所有民主黨議員的支持。該協議不包括任何烏克蘭援助或邊境條款。

標普500指數9月創下年內最大月度跌幅

標普500指數9月下跌4.9%，是自2022年12月以來表現最差的一個月，投資者面臨加息可能會持續一段時間的局面。

Karen Langley

2023年10月2日16:45 CST 更新

科技股受到利率攀升的沉重打擊。蘋果公司(Apple Inc., AAPL)股價9月下跌8.9%，英偉達(Nvidia Corp., NVDA)股價下跌12%。這兩支股票今年迄今漲幅分別為32%和198%。

能源股是標普500指數11個類股中9月唯一收高的類股，當月累計上漲2.5%，受油價上漲推動，全球基準布倫特原油本月上漲9.7%，至每桶95.31美元。埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp., XOM)本月股價上漲5.7%，雪佛龍公司(Chevron Corp., CVX)上漲4.7%。

個股方面，耐吉公司(Nike Inc., NKE)股價周五上漲6.7%，先前這家運動鞋巨頭的業績超出了華爾街的預期。

歐洲斯托克600指數9月下跌1.7%。

A New Interest-Rate Regime Has Begun. These Are the Market’s Winners and Losers.

Bond prices, the Magnificent Seven and emerging markets are under pressure

Investors are struggling to make peace with a new reality: Interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer. 

Stocks have tumbled, government-bond yields have risen and the U.S. dollar has climbed since Federal Reserve officials signaled two weeks ago that they might hold rates near current levels through 2024.

In the coming days, investors will be looking at Monday’s manufacturing data and Friday’s monthly jobs report as they try to assess the strength of the economy and the market’s trajectory.  Expectations for higher interest rates drive down bond prices because investors worry that bonds issued in the future will pay larger coupons than current ones. That, in turn, pushes up yields, a measure of annualized expected returns that assumes bonds will be paid at their face value at maturity.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note briefly climbed above 4.6%, its highest level since 2007, from 3.818% at the end of June. The 

iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF

—which largely holds U.S. Treasurys, highly rated corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities—is on pace to fall 3% in 2023, which would mark an unprecedented third consecutive annual decline. 

Steady income from stocks doesn’t hold the same appeal it used to. 

Fewer than 30 stocks in the S&P 500 have a dividend yield above that on the six-month Treasury bill, according to FactSet. 

That is a shift from much of the past decade when interest rates were near zero and hundreds of stocks within the index offered higher yields. At the end of 2021, before rates began to rise, there were 379 index constituents that offered a better yield than the Treasury bill, according to Birinyi Associates.

Investors see little reason to own dividend-paying stocks when yields are rising on risk-free government bonds. Besides, the stocks aren’t offering enough extra yield to compensate for the risk of a slowdown in business activity.

Emerging markets are slumping while the dollar climbs

Dollar’s Resurgence Is a Headache for the Rest of the World

Surging Treasury yields help send the U.S. currency to its best quarter in a year

By Chelsey Dulaney

Oct. 2, 2023 7:00 am ET

The dollar’s strength has been driven by surging Treasury yields, which last week jumped above 4.6% to a new 16-year-high. Investors have grown more convinced of the U.S. economy’s resilience—and that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep borrowing costs higher for longer than it would do in a typical business cycle.

Any big currency move produces both winners and losers. In the U.S., a strong dollar is politically popular and largely good for consumers because it holds down inflation by keeping import prices in check, and makes trips abroad cheaper.For the rest of the world, however, the return of the strong dollar is a largely unwelcome development. In many countries, interest rates are at their highest in years or decades, already increasing the risk of financial stress. The combination of those higher rates, a stronger U.S. currency and elevated oil prices spells lower growth across the world and more financial vulnerability. U.S. companies with big overseas businesses like 

Apple

 are also getting hit as the value of their overseas revenue falls in terms of the U.S. currency and their goods become more expensive for foreigners.

“The strong dollar is overstaying its welcome. It’s starting to become a problem again,” said Chris Turner, head of foreign-exchange strategy at ING. In recent months, currencies in Latin America and Eastern Europe have been hit hard. Central banks in Brazil, Poland and Hungary have started cutting policy rates after winning praise for their quick action to tighten monetary policy in 2021, well ahead of the Fed and other developed-market central banks. They are now under pressure to pause or slow rate-cutting plans to prevent further pressure on their currencies.

America’s Debt Problem Is Too Big for the Bond Vigilantes

Surging deficits and bond yields create an opening, but investors are likely to take a painful hit this time

By 

Spencer Jakab

Sept. 30, 2023 5:30 am ET

Investors soon spoke even more loudly than Perot through the bond vigilantes—a term coined by economist Ed Yardeni for traders who vote with their feet.                                     If bond vigilantes had influence 30 years ago, they certainly could now with gross federal debt more than seven times as high. Net interest payments alone this coming fiscal year will be $745 billion, according to Congressional Budget Office projections. The average interest rate on marketable debt went from nearly 5% before the financial crisis to as low as 1.42% in early 2022, but it is about to cross 3% again and is rising quickly.                                                                                                                                This time, though, the vigilantes won’t get far in Congress. Of $6.4 trillion in projected federal outlays in fiscal 2024, only $1.85 trillion is neither mandatory nor net interest. Of that, about half is defense—a vexing category to trim, even in peacetime. Making draconian cuts to what is left would cause a public outcry and still wouldn’t be enough.                                                                                              What is a poor deficit hawk to do? There is one more part of the federal government that can act. Strategists at GlobalData TS Lombard point out that there have been two ways to deal with unsustainable government debt over the years—the orthodox approach of austerity and reform or the unorthodox one of default, inflation or financial repression. For the U.S., actual default is fortunately off the table because it borrows in dollars. But some combination of inflation and repression might be necessary if deficits and rates stay near current levels.      Inflation is called the cruelest tax because it erodes the wealth of savers, including people who live off their savings. It can artificially boost government revenue and reduce the real value of borrowings. Repression means the government’s forcing interest rates to stay below the rate of inflation as a way to transfer wealth from the private sector back to itself.