2023/9/3 Sunday

 China: 

1. 財新傳媒和研究公司Markit周五早間公布的數據顯示，8月份中國通用製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)升至51.0，時隔一個月重回擴張，顯示製造業景氣改善，創2月份後最佳表現。先前7月份該PMI降至49.2，時隔兩個月再度跌破榮枯線。6月和5月各為50.5、50.9。

2. 中國央行今早(9/1) 宣布，為提升金融機構外匯資金運用能力，自2023年9月15日起，下調金融機構外匯存款準備金率2個百分點，即外匯存款準備金率由現行的6%下調至4%。消息公布後，離岸人民幣兌美元匯率快速反彈。離岸人民幣周五報1美元兌人民幣7.2685元，微漲0.09%；最高7.2391元，也創8月11日以後的新高。外匯存款準備金率下調，意味著市場上美元流動性增加，有助於緩解人民幣匯率貶值壓力。為抑制人民幣匯率貶值，中國央行已通過口頭警告、重啟中間價逆周期因子、加大離岸央票發行力度，以及窗口指導國有大行維穩，並上調跨境融資宏觀審慎調節參數等多項方式來干預。

Source: WSJ

3. 在中國政府宣布下調房貸利率以刺激房地產市場後，包括大型國有銀行在內的中國多家商業銀行周五(9/1)下調了一系列人民幣存款利率，以保護自身盈利能力。

中國工商銀行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, 601398.SH, 1398.HK)、中國銀行(Bank of China, 601988.SH, 3988.HK)、中國農業銀行(Agricultural Bank of China, 601288.SH, 1288.HK)、中國建設銀行(China Construction Bank, 601939.SH, 0939.HK)和交通銀行(Bank of Communications, 601328.SH, 3328.HK)等多家銀行協同下調了存款利率。根據這些銀行的網上聲明，1年期定期存款利率下調10個基點，至1.55%；2年期定期存款利率下調20個基點，至1.85%；3年期和5年期定期存款利率均下調25個基點，分別至2.2%和2.25%。

中國央行周四(8/31)表示，將降低首套和二套住房的最低首付款比例要求，並下調存量房貸款利率。這是中國政府為挽救長期低迷的房地產市場所做的最新努力。

先前，中國央行下調了1年期貸款利率，降幅為三年來最大。降低存款利率將有助於中國銀行業緩解即將到來的房貸利率下調帶來的壓力，挽救其不斷收窄的利潤率，並鼓勵中國家庭增加消費。

US

1. Politics

If the Republican primary were held today, for which candidate would you vote?

                           

Source: WSJ

2. Economy

Job Gains Eased in Summer Months; Unemployment Increased in August to 3.8% from 3.5% in July.

Employers added 187,000 jobs last month, while wages rose 4.3% from a year earlier, while payrolls in June and July were revised down a combined 110,000, the Labor Department said. Over those three months, a modest 150,000 jobs were added monthly on average, down from an average gain of 238,000 in March through May.

Source: WSJ

Fed officials watch the jobs report and other data to determine whether they need to raise borrowing costs again to slow the economy and tame inflation. In an August speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell kept the door open to lifting rates later this year if the economy doesn’t slow enough to convince officials that inflation will continue to decline.

3. Business 

Tesla Leads Race to Draw Federal Money for Charging Networks

A handful of states are starting to release the first wave of about $5 billion intended to dot U.S. highways with fast chargers and overcome “range anxiety.” The money was approved in the 2021 federal infrastructure law and is being released over five years. Many states have committed billions of dollars more.

Automakers are investing heavily in EVs, but so far the U.S. has only around 33,400 fast chargers, according to government data. Three out of five of all fast chargers are in Tesla’s network. 

So far, Tesla is the winning bidder to build chargers at about 18% of the sites selected by states using the federal dollars to fund fast chargers, more than any other company, according to data from EVAdoption, an EV and charging analytics firm. Tesla has won around $8.5 million of the roughly $77 million awarded so far.

The charging industry outside the Tesla network has struggled with growing pains, including broken equipment, billing fights with utilities and unprofitability because of the relatively low—for now—percentage of EVs on the road. Tesla’s price advantage is in part because it makes its own chargers. In one Maine bid, it estimated hardware costs of $17,000 a charger, compared with $130,000 by another company, according to EVAdoption.

4.Technology

The Disappointing Bet That Could Turn Into the Biggest IPO of the Year

Arm is eyeing a target valuation between $50 billion and $55 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Some analysts peg Arm’s worth at between $45 billion and $50 billion, while SoftBank recently valued Arm at $64 billion when it bought out a stake held by its own SoftBank Vision Fund. 

Part of the problem, analysts say, is that Arm was already so dominant in its main smartphone business that it had little more room to grow. They credit SoftBank with investing more in research and development, where outlays can take years to pay off. 

Two issues will be vital for prospective investors: China and artificial intelligence. Nearly one-quarter of Arm’s revenue last year came from China, and Arm warned that this made it “particularly susceptible to economic and political risks.” Growth in China is slowing, geopolitical tensions are simmering, and Arm depends for sales on its affiliate Arm China, the subject of an earlier tussle for corporate control.

Arm saw more success breaking into areas such as chips for servers and car parts. Still, its market share in cloud computing is roughly 10%, half the 20% target it once set for 2021. In autos, it boasts a 40% market share—but the emergence of chip-intensive self-driving cars has proved slower than expected. 

Revenue for the 12 months ended in June was $2.7 billion. The 65% increase from the 2016 calendar year compares with a 52% rise in global chip sales in the same period, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics. Profit margins are down significantly: Arm’s income was 20% of revenue in its latest financial year, down from 34% in the year before the SoftBank deal. Analysts at Bernstein say margins are likely to rise once Arm becomes public and keeps a tighter grip on costs.